Friday 26 September 2008

Hope on the Korean peninsula provided by an 'informed observer'

Over at Danger Room, Jeffrey Lewis through the help from an 'informed observer' offers an alternative to the current failing US policy on North Korean nuclear disarmament.


'...informed observers are floating the idea of “provisional delisting” that allows the North Koreans to move first privately, but save face in the process — here is how it goes:
  1. North Korea agrees to a verification protocol that is limited to the 38 nuclear-related sites in the North Korean declaration, which includes anytime access and environmental sampling.  Pyongyang hands this agreement over to the Chinese, who hold it in escrow.

  2. The President of the United States publicly announces that North Korea is not involved in terrorism (which, by happy coincidence, is true) and that he is de-listing North Korea provisionally on the expectation that North Korea will resume disablement activities and agree to a verification.  If North Korea fails to agree to a verification scheme within some decent interval, he can simply place Pyongyang back on the list, right between Iran and Sudan.  (For some reason, the State Department tends to list the states alphabetically, instead of by date of listing.)

  3. The Chinese release the North Korean agreement, held in escrow, announcing that the North Koreans have in fact agreed to a verification proposal acceptable to the US.  “How wise,” Wang Yi will opine, “of the Great Power to move first, allowing the smaller, weaker party to save face.”  He will say this without any hint of irony, which is an advantage to being Chinese.

It sounds smart, but does President Bush have the stomach for such a move? Perhaps, anything can happen in the final months of a lame-duck presidency.

Everything else looks nicely in order; a face saving technique for the isolated regime, a back-room statement of intentions by the North Koreans to settle US nerves, and the Bush Administration able to claim a late success while North Korea talks of triumph in the face of the Evil Satan. It is certainly the only sensible solution which has emerged to pull North Korea away from beginning re-processing, so I support it.

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